This article first appeared on the Ethics & International Affairs blog.
The "Super Tuesday" contest has now transformed the Democratic presidential primary into a two-person race, but beyond that, Democratic voters are now presented with a clear choice between two different foreign policy narratives and ethical considerations when it comes to U.S. engagement in the international system.
I had the opportunity to speak with Alex Woodson today to give my first impressions of where the race goes from here, but I also wanted to share some overall conclusions:
- While most voters did not make their choice based on foreign policy, foreign policy is essential to the domestic platforms of both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Sanders' call for a "domestic revolution" and a restructuring of the American economy requires some degree of an inward turn for America, and a re-evaluation of its international commitments, especially when it comes to creating and maintaining free trade agreements. Biden has argued that Donald Trump's haphazard withdrawal from key agreements has in fact jeopardized the security and prosperity of Americans, and promises to restore a degree of reliability. Populist constituencies may be more responsive to Sanders' critiques—and it was interesting that the day after Super Tuesday, Sanders made his differences with Biden on trade central to his argument—but important agricultural and industrial constituencies who have been damaged by the trade wars with Europe, China, and other key trading partners may welcome a return to normalcy.
As of mid-March, we now have three distinct foreign policy narratives emerging among the candidates. Trump, of course, remains committed to an America First/transactionalist narrative, and the Trump administration's push for an agreement to finalize an end to the Afghan operation signals an effort to appeal to populist constituencies that Trump seeks to end interventions overseas. Sanders represents a pulling back to focus on domestic issues and in some cases may echo Trumpian themes in his debates with Joe Biden. Finally, we have seen a coalescing around Biden of the voting groups that would like to reset the country back to where the Barack Obama administration left off in 2016.